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Saturday, October 23, 2004
Fog of War 
The fog of the Terror WarThis article provides a good example of what it's like for the President to fight the Terror War:

You receive the best information available at the time; it indicates al-Qaeda intends to sway the US elections with an attack, just like they did in Spain. You go ahead and issue an alert. It's the only safe thing to do, seeing as you're charged with protecting the country from things like this.

As time goes by, things become clearer. As happens with most intelligence, you find much of the information has only a probability of being true. One source turns out to have been making things up. But the overall chatter still indicates an attack is coming; you just don't know the specifics -- when, where, who.

Your political opponents see this as opportunism on your part. "Ah, there was no threat. Bush just wants to scare the ignorant masses into voting for him."

Should you wait for apodictic certainty before you warn people there's a threat?

Others complain they aren't warned of threats soon enough. "We want to know everything Bush knows. Why's he playing things so close to the vest? This is the most secretive Presidency in modern times!"

Should you issue a warning every time there's the slightest whiff of a hint of an inkling of a suspicion of a threat? Then, of course, they'll write books within a year calling you a liar because some of your intelligence is later found to be unreliable. It's happened before, and with better-attested intelligence, too.

Wading through such a fog, one has two choices: Pull over to the side of the road and wait for it to clear. Or, if the situation is urgent, proceed resolutely as best you can.

The situation is urgent. Sitting on the shoulder, or dithering over what to do, or fiddling with cruise control so you look busy is not an option any longer. Dangerous and uncertain as it is (both geopolitically and politically), we must drive on.

That's why the Gnomon recommends you vote for George W. Bush this election day.






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