The Christian Science Monitor holds out the prospect that Senator Kerry's staff shake up (which he denies happened) will energize his campaign. But it doesn't seem too likely to us. Mr. Bush was gaining in the polls even before the GOP Convention, and still got a post-convention bounce according to Gallup, Rasmussen, and even Time and Newsweek. Mr. Kerry received his fabled "negative bounce" after his best chance to present himself to the country and has not recovered at all.

Barring a major, epoch-making event, The Gnomon predicts he won't -- though the margins will narrow, particularly in the poorly-done Time and Newsweek opinion samples.

Senator Kerry is a spent force.